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Title: Accident risk estimation model development for narrow body commercial aircraft
Authors: Wiriyacosol, Supachok
Tiabtiamrat, Somchanok
Keywords: Aeronautics
Issue Date: 2009
Type: Preprint
Series/Report no.: REP582 2009;c.1
REP582 2009;c.2
Abstract: The accident concerning narrow body aircraft was statistically evaluated covering six families of commercial aircraft i.e. Boeing 737, Airbus A320, McDonald Douglas MD80, Tupolev 134, Tupolev 154, and Antonov AN 124. The effect of time on the hull loss accident ratio (HLAR) was assessed. Equations representing the effect of time on HLAR were proposed for 737, A320, and MD 80. Average values of HLAR were found for TU134, TU154, and AN 124. A risk indicator (1m) for each flight phase for each family of aircraft was developed. 1m was found to be highly related to the relative probability of a hull loss accident occurring at a certain phase of flight (Phl). Linear equations represented the relations between Phl and 1m were found from curve fitting. Simplification could be made by using a single equation to represent the relationship between 1m and Phl for six families of narrow body commercial aircraft. The probability of an aircraft in a certain flight phase under a specified weather condition involving in a hull loss accident could then be estimated from the product of HLAR and Phl This estimated probability of hull loss accident can be an additional information to pilots, air traffic controllers, and airport managers in decision making to enhance aviation safety
Description: RTAFA Journal of Science and Technology (2009) : p.87-92.
Appears in Collections:School of Management Publications (SoM)

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